Newest Tongue Twister Alert: Abiy Ahmed’s Autocracy Aims to be An Axis
Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, pictured attending his first BRICS summit with others such as Vladimir Putin, President of Russia. Photo courtesy of Sergey Bobylev.
On May 5, 1941, Ethiopia was one of the only African countries to successfully evade direct colonization during the Battle of Adwa against Italy. In conjunction with being a symbol of sovereignty for African countries, Ethiopia is uniquely active in the international community as a founding member of the African Union and an early member of the United Nations and the League of Nations. Despite the country’s recognition, the Ethiopian government’s yearning for Western approval, from Emperor Menelik II’s rule to the beginning of Abiy Ahmed’s dictatorship, is a direct cause of its present condition, marked by political instability and disregard for its citizens. For decades, the Ethiopian government has put up a facade of diplomacy to gain global recognition. While its motive today remains the same, Ethiopia has shifted to an anti-Western agenda, and these constantly changing affiliations are jeopardizing its citizens and the international perception of Africa.
In 1896, Ethiopia’s leader, Emperor Menelik II, led the military to defeat Italian troops and implemented a political agenda to advance Ethiopia economically, politically, and modernize the country to align with Western standards. Yet, his ambitions to expand the empire were violent, mirroring the approach of European powers. When Menelik wrote to the Scramble for Africa, a conference where European powers divided the continent for colonization, rather than shaming the participants, he wanted in. Menelik stated he would not watch the Europeans divide Africa amongst themselves, and that “he intended to conquer as far as Khartoum [Modern-day Sudan] and Lake Nyasa [Cameroon].” These goals were met with European assistance, as Menelik purchased weaponry from France and other European countries with revenue generated from slaves he sold from Ethiopia. In turn, he put the arms to use, invading ethnic regions within Ethiopia and surrounding countries. The Europeans’ intentions to Christianize their conquests aligned with Menlik’s plans, and religion was his primary means to determine which ethnic groups within the country were victims of genocide. The Oromo Muslim ethnic group suffered greatly; their population decreased from about 10 million in 1870 to 5 million in 1900. One of many groups, the Oromo were victims of the expansion of the Ethiopian empire, which grew by more than 65 percent in land acquisition, becoming modern-day Ethiopia.
Menelik’s agenda of modernizing Ethiopia and culturally assimilating the various ethnic groups through violence was derived from his predecessors, emperors Tewodros II and Yohannes IV, and continued with Emperor Haile Selassie and the leaders of the government to this day. Emperors Tewodros II and Yohannes IV both led killing sprees that ethnically targeted rural populations such as Oromos and Tigrayans, who remained targeted by the Ethiopian government. Emperor Haile Selassie, while continuing this pattern, portrayed Ethiopia as an evolving state. Haile Selassie ruled Ethiopia for a cumulative 45 years from 1930 to 1974, with a brief intermission caused by his exile to the United Kingdom during the Italo-Ethiopian War. Once reinstated, Selassie ran a fully authoritarian government and feudal state, though after observing the structure of the United Kingdom during his exile, he implemented educational reform and drafted a modern constitution with the help of colonial powers.
Iconically and ironically, Selassie joined the League of Nations in 1923, the organization created in Geneva to promote international cooperation, with a unanimous vote including Italy, which had made peace with Ethiopia. In 1936, Italy attempted to occupy Ethiopia, resulting in Selassie making a speech at the League of Nations. He stated, “Despite the inferiority of my weapons, the complete lack of aircraft, artillery, munitions, hospital services, my confidence in the League was absolute.” Selassie also described how Italy violently tear-gassed his people and country. The League of Nations failed to address Italy’s fascist behavior and never applied economic sanctions effectively, resulting in Abyssinia (Ethiopia) being occupied momentarily. Regardless, this incident revealed two things: Selassie’s longing for Western approval and his hypocrisy in harming the Ethiopian population while pleading for their protection.
Modern-day Ethiopia, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rule, was proving to be no different than the reign of Ethiopian leaders, enchanting the international community with a democratic approach while simultaneously committing a mass genocide against the Tigrayan population. Ahmed began his term with a leadership rooted in promoting peace and democracy. He released political prisoners, backed a woman for president, established a ministry of peace, welcomed the Oromo group back into the country, and allowed for freer media. He even earned a Nobel Peace Prize in October 2019 for mediating a 20-year-old conflict with Eritrea. Michael Raynor, U.S. ambassador, called Ahmed the “most pro-West leader we’re going to get.”
Unfortunately, most of the positive reports were found to be falsely reported and embellished. In 2020, a civil war broke out from political disagreements between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian government, spearheaded by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Despite signing a ceasefire in November of 2022, the fallout has fractured the country, which is now challenged by a litany of issues, including starvation, sexual violence, and an ethnic cleansing that affects 21 million people. In trying to cover up these heinous crimes, the Ethiopian government denies any responsibility, while continuing to send peacekeeping missions out to other countries and seeking a permanent seat at the United Nations’ Security Council. Centuries of Western appraisal were starting to pay off. Of the $4.1 billion the U.S. sent to Ethiopia from 2018 to 2023, $600 million would be to support the democracy that Abiy Ahmed claimed to implement. As Ahmed swept his failures under the rug, the U.S. began to see Ethiopia as a monumental pawn in gaining influence in East Africa.
Nearing the end of 2023, tensions between the U.S. and Ethiopia strained as the U.S. attempted to strategically address the human rights issue while maintaining a solid relationship.
As this international facade slowly starts to fade under Abiy Ahmed’s regime, it seems as if Ethiopia has pivoted to seeking approval from the “New Axis,” instead of the Western powers. In the modern-day, the term the “New Axis” describes countries such as, China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, who are the “autocratic powers… challenging the status quo, seeking to compete across multiple domains of military power within the context of advancing their national aims while, concomitantly, coalescing their policies and actions into a common strategic front against the West.”
Ahmed proved Ethiopia is aiming to be a global power, one way or another, by joining one of the most renowned anti-Western organizations, BRICS. The organization, named after its founding members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, aims to reshape the status quo of global political and economic dominance in the developing world. As of August 2023, Ethiopia attended the 15th annual BRICS Summit and officially joined on January 1, 2024, making it the eleventh member amongst prominent global players like Saudi Arabia and Iran. Since 2023, Ahmed has shifted Ethiopia’s “multilateral-based normative approach” to a “bilaterally rooted, assertive, and realist policy.” Recently, the Nobel Peace Prize winner’s leadership has resulted in Ethiopia pulling its peacekeeping missions, signing a memorandum of understanding with Iran for weaponry, and imploding its relationships with the West.
Ultimately, the Ethiopian government has been led by a series of leaders who have not considered the development of their country, citizens, or economy. Instead, they have worked to appease the Western countries, hoping their compliance will get them a seat at the table. As that fails, the current Ethiopian government is focusing its energy on gaining international standing within the “New Axis.”
Regardless of the intention, neither of these methods considers the prosperity of Ethiopia. When Ethiopia approached validation from the Western standpoint, its efforts still included mass genocides of the Oromo Muslim population, bypassing these atrocities because the removal of these populations would fit the Western image of Christianity. On the other hand, Ahmed’s current mass ethnic cleansing of the Tigray population fits the anti-Western perspective of exerting the utmost authority when the autocracy is challenged.
Whether anti-Western or Western, Ethiopia needs to stop trying to gain an international hand at the expense of its population and needs to adopt an Ethiopia-first mentality to cater to its population and Africa as its foreign policy makes it one of the most pivotal. Its actions will continue to endanger reform for itself and all African countries.
Afomia Giday (CC’28) is a staff writer at CPR. She looks forward to studying Political Science and Human Rights with the intention of bettering the world and focusing on African reform and ethnic conflict