Escaping the Incumbency Curse: Lessons from Mexican Democracy

Claudia Sheinbaum raises her fist during her victory speech on June 2, 2024. Photo courtesy of the ENEAS.

2024 was coined the year of democracy, as over half of the world’s population headed to the polls to cast their vote in national elections. An unusual global trend emerged: in almost all cases, voters expressed disillusionment with the status quo, and the incumbent failed.

In country after country, incumbents lost traction. In the United Kingdom? Conservatives lost their majority in Parliament after nearly 14 years in power. Compared with the composition of the 2019 Parliament, Labour won over 209 seats while the Conservative Party lost 244. The United States? Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in an unexpected landslide, marking a dramatic Republican return to the White House. India? Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third term, though his party was unable to win a total majority in parliament. South Africa? The African National Congress Party lost its first election since the end of apartheid.

Yet, amid this anti-incumbency trend, an outlier emerged: Mexico. 

When Mexicans headed to the polls last June, they doubled down on their support for the incumbent party, Morena, and handed a landslide victory to Claudia Sheinbaum, the handpicked successor of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (better known by his moniker, AMLO). Morena also outperformed in the gubernatorial elections, winning 7 out of 9 races. In a world turning against their leaders, Mexicans were resolute in their support for Morena’s doctrine. 

Why did this happen? Three key factors contributed to the Morena party’s success.

First, AMLO retained high approval ratings throughout his presidency, always at 60 percent or higher since his election in 2018. These polling numbers remained steady by the time elections rolled around in 2024. 

AMLO’s approval rating can largely be attributed to his capacity to deliver on promises that largely benefited the working class. For instance, the minimum wage dramatically increased under his tenure, going from 88.15 pesos in 2018 to 248.93 in 2024. These were widely celebrated by his supporters, cited as a way to lift Mexicans out of poverty.

The former president also spearheaded a number of projects aimed at providing economic opportunities for the working class. One signature project is the Tren Maya, a tourist-attracting train that now runs through the Yucatan Peninsula, promising sustainable boosts to tourism and economic prospects. Though this endeavor faced notable controversy for its destructive environmental impact, it remained considerably popular among rural communities as it presented new jobs and economic opportunities for communities that had long been left behind. 

Under AMLO’s tenure, the Mexican economy grew steadily, though southern states—historically the most desolate area of Mexico’s economic landscape—had the most fiscal growth during the train’s construction. This is a direct reflection of the administration’s emphasis on developmental projects and attention to those traditionally left behind by economic inequality.

AMLO’s popularity could also be attributed to his administration’s perceived transparency. His daily morning briefings—coined las mañaneras—were well received by significant portions of the Mexican public. Though populist in nature and riddled with controversy, for a country historically plagued with government corruption and public distrust, AMLO’s approach to the press marked a significant break with the past and a new era of perceived openness and direct communication. President Sheinbaum continued this tradition, as she also delivers daily briefings to the public.

A second contributing factor to Morena’s success is the constitutional structure of Mexican democracy. Mexican presidents are limited to a single six-year term, coined the sexenio, which means that incumbents do not spend any time in government preparing for reelection. This creates a unique political environment in which voters can reward the party by ushering in a new head of state without punishing the incumbent.

Thus, though voters could choose to remain faithful to Morena’s platform, they could do so while rallying behind Sheinbaum as an exciting, fresh face. Particularly as AMLO faced ample criticism for his brash nature and disregard of democratic norms, Sheinbaum’s demeanor differs from his as a cool, level-headed, professional successor. Her experience as the former mayor of Mexico City and a Nobel Peace Prize-winning environmental scientist adds to this regard. 

The sexenio provided voters with an ample segway away from the AMLO presidency without a drastic redirection of the country’s political course.

Thirdly, it is worth considering that Mexico was simply ahead of the curve. As voters around the world ushered in radical changes this past election cycle, Mexico had its big break in 2018. AMLO campaigned on the promise of La Cuarta Transformacion, or “The Fourth Transformation,” of Mexican society in which he aimed to empower the country’s poorest citizens through drastic economic reforms, including the aforementioned ambitious projects like wage increases and Tren Maya. 

This fiscal redistribution came hand in hand with democratic restructuring, which has been highly criticized by leading scholars and experts worldwide. It has included a politicization of the Mexican military, a wave of judicial reforms, and an attack on the independent voting commission.

Nonetheless, AMLO’s aforementioned capacity to deliver on his fiscal promises bolstered his mandate and electoral support. Morena’s sweeping victory is a clear indication that, at least for the time being, voters are content with the country’s drastic 2018 redirection and the current path that the country is on.

It is unlikely that a single one of these factors contributed to the success of the incumbent party in Mexico. Moreover, it is likely that a combination of these factors—high approval ratings, a strong economy, and a single term limit—led to Morena’s victorious electoral results in 2024. It is also clear that the Mexican electorate has chosen a far-left political doctrine as their mechanism for change. 

In an age of political uncertainty, Mexico has dodged the incumbency curse, begging the attention of democratic scholars throughout the world. 

Rosie Alchalel (BC ‘26) is a junior at Barnard studying Political Science. She enjoys long walks in Central Park, iced oat lattes, and reading Joan Didion.