Climate, Conflict, and the Niger Coup

Militants in the Tillabéri Region of Niger. Photo by Aharan Kotogo

In July 2023, the torrid sand seas of the Sahel region washed in another conflict: the Nigerien military coup. It serves as a stark reminder that this region is at a critical juncture, where political instability intersects with growing Jihadist security threats, making the role of climate change in these dynamics all the more pressing.

Democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum was arrested by the Presidential Guard on July 23rd. The new military government has since suspended the Constitution and expelled Western diplomats and military support. Niger’s coup is a major concern for Western nations that considered the country the last bulwark against escalating Islamic extremism and growing Russian influence in a region plagued by a preexisting pattern of military takeovers. Since 2020, Niger marks the seventh coup in West and Central Africa. The new government has proven itself to be undependable in the fight against extremists, especially as it continues to remove French counterterrorism support, deepening Western concerns. Although it is easy to get distracted by the geopolitical power struggles at play, we cannot take our eyes away from a fundamental catalyst of further instability and violence: climate change. 

Niger is no stranger to a multitude of issues, including political and economic instability. This confluence of challenges has only intensified as the country reckons with the ever-pressing demands of climate change. Temperatures in the Sahel—the region between Sudanian savannas and the Sahara—are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average, exacerbating existing desertification issues that have plagued the country. This has led to reduced arable land, driving severe food insecurity and increased competition within the agricultural sector which employs more than 70 percent of the population. Jihadist groups such as Boko Haram, have exploited the region’s unstable environmental conditions to recruit and control civilians, resulting in a surge of violent extremism in the past decade. 

The nexus between climate and conflict in Niger is intuitive: scarcity of resources leads to increased competition and subsequent conflict over those resources. Hence, attempting to distill the coup's origins down to geopolitics alone is a reductionist and negligent approach. Rather, the coup must be understood in relation to climate change as a reinforcing feedback loop through which environmental challenges fuel conflict in the region. Climate change amplifies instability and weakens governance structures, which in turn impede the region's resilience, as well as adaptation efforts, to climate change. A weakened capacity to address environmental challenges will feed into the conflict trap by exacerbating these existing vulnerabilities and instability, ensnaring the region in a perpetual conflict trap—a cycle of recurring conflict and violence. The July coup is the nail in the coffin for Niger’s teetering stability, setting the merry-go-round of conflict back into full motion. 

It is evident that the lack of an effective civilian government erodes Niger’s ability to fight against violent extremism, and climate-related challenges will only make it worse. The number of violent attacks against civilians by the Islamic State's Sahel branch increased fourfold in the month following the coup. One such attack occurred after tensions sparked between armed troops, leading to the deaths of at least 17 Nigerien soldiers. As the impacts of drought and Western sanctions compound to further aggravate food insecurity, Boko Haram and other Jihadist groups will only gain a deeper foothold to expand their influence.

The deteriorating security situation generates both domestic and international concerns as the Jihadist insurgency and the larger Islamist insurgency in the Sahel continues to grow and Niger's military finds itself less equipped to respond. What is even more worrisome is that, without international support, Niger will struggle to source weapons to defend itself from attacks against violent extremists. With the loss of Western support, the new military government is following the path of its neighbors, Mali and Burkina Faso, where the military juntas have allied with Russia’s mercenary group, Wagner, to solidify their power. Given that the U.S. and other Western powers have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance to bolster Niger’s status as a linchpin of democracy and an ally to counter the growing Jihadist threat in a region otherwise ridden in conflict, the coup is a crisis for the West.

The rise of violent extremism in Niger extends beyond a state or regional security issue; it is a crisis for Western nations concerned by both Islamist militant groups and Russia’s growing influence. If the West hopes to tackle this dual security dilemma, addressing climate change is a necessity. With Niger’s reduced ability to respond to Jihadist attacks and the resultant instability, climate change will only breed further extremism on already fertile ground. As such, Western countries have a vested interest in not only supporting security efforts but also in addressing the environmental factors that underpin and reinforce these conflicts. By taking a holistic approach that acknowledges the role of climate change, Western nations can make progress toward lasting stability, minimize the appeal of extremist ideologies, and promote resilience in the Sahel region. In doing so, they can contribute to global security and sustainable development simultaneously.

Charlotte Guy (BC ‘26) is a staff writer at CPR majoring in political science and human rights.