Pat Ryan: A False Hope for Democrats

Representative Pat Ryan on the campaign trail. Photo by Pat Ryan.

The 2022 midterm elections are only a week away, and polls indicate that Democrats will lose their control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. As of October 27, FiveThirtyEight predicts that Democrats have only a ⅕ shot of a majority in the House, a sign that the chamber will likely go to Republicans this November. 

Still, some Democrats point to recent special election victories, where Democratic candidates prevailed over Republican favorites, as a signal that polls may underestimate Democratic support. Most notably, a special election was held in New York’s 19th Congressional District this August, due to Antonio Delgado’s resignation of the seat to become the Lieutenant Governor of New York. In that election, now-Representative Pat Ryan beat Republican nominee Marc Molinaro by 2.3 points for the seat, despite Molinaro’s being forecasted to win by almost 3 points. 

When looking at Pat Ryan’s special election victory, optimistic Democrats might argue that the 5 point difference between polls and the election outcome is proof that pollsters are underestimating Democratic support going into the midterm elections as a whole, and many news publications have cited Ryan’s victory as a hopeful trial run ahead of November. In reality, however, characterizing Representative Ryan’s victory as a sign that Democrats will win tight races in November overlooks important aspects of this particular election and key differences that will define the midterms. Specifically, the effects of redistricting and a loss of momentum for Democrats on key issues will undoubtedly hinder Democrats’ chances. While New York 19th’s special election is a recent example of a Democratic candidate overcoming unfavorable odds and winning his race, Democrats must be wary of applying this election’s outcome to the greater context of the midterm elections. 

Conventional wisdom indicates that special elections are suggestive of a party’s performance in a general election. However, the 2020 redistricting process presents a unique circumstance that might make Representative Ryan’s special election victory an unreliable indicator of the upcoming November election. While Representative Ryan ran in New York’s 19th district during the special election, this November he will be on the ballot in the 18th congressional district due to a change in district boundaries. Overall, Pat Ryan’s candidacy in two back-to-back elections in two different districts presents clear opportunities for voter confusion.

Overall, redistricting chaos has introduced a degree of disorder in the New York voter base. On the ground, this confusion resulted in significantly lower turnout by both parties when compared to recent elections to the House of Representatives: only 36% of 2020 and 45% of 2018 turned out in 2022’s special election. While lower turnout is typical of special elections, it yields less reliable data when acting as a sample group for the nation’s larger public opinion. 

Redistricting isn’t the only reason that Pat Ryan’s victory can’t be considered a sign of Democratic strength heading into November. Democrats are losing their motivation to assert their position on important issues. Democrat’s pro abortion rights campaign, which emerged as a highly salient issue that Democrats hoped to ride to victory in the midterms, has lost some of its steam in the time since Roe v Wade was overturned. The special election in NY-19 on August 23rd was the first federal election to be held following the Supreme Court decision Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which removed federal protections for abortion. Following the decision, support for Democrats nationwide increased as a wave of pro-choice protests swept the nation, a cause that quickly became the focal point of Representative Ryan’s campaign. Representative Ryan’s pro-choice message resonated with voters, helping him rise to victory amidst a larger national movement. 

The Dobbs decision certainly bolstered Representative Ryan’s support in August, but public outrage over the decision has cooled in the months since then. While abortion rights continue to be a major component of Democratic campaigns nationwide, it’s unrealistic for Democrats to expect abortion rights to propel Democratic candidates to win tight races in the way that it did for Representative Ryan. Instead, studies indicate that most voters are prioritizing other issues, such as inflation and the economy, headed into November.

Democrats should not take Pat Ryan’s special election victory as an indicator of Democratic performance in the November midterm elections. Many factors, such as redistricting and the salience of abortion rights over the summer, illustrate that Representative Ryan’s victory was a perfect storm for Democrats, one that they should not expect to re-manifest this November. As much as Democrats hope for polling errors in their favor, the reality is that they should expect to suffer heavy losses in the House, if not both the House and Senate. 

Jackson Weinberger (CC’24) is a staff writer for the Columbia Political Review studying Political Science and Art History. He is an engaged student with experience in New York campaigning and electoral politics, including work on Pat Ryan’s campaign for NY-19’s special election last August.