From Wikimedia Commons This article is part of an ongoing biweekly series called “Highway 270,” which profiles heavily contested states in the 2012 election season. This week, I will examine the current political climate in Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes. Winning Ohio was crucial to Obama’s 2008 victory, and it will undoubtedly be of comparable importance this November. The Washington Post claims that “[if] Obama can win Ohio, then he almos...
I was heading out the door after making a speech in Defiance, Ohio — a quaint, charming town deep in the state’s northwest corner — when a middle-aged man in faded jeans and a hunting jacket stopped me and extended his hand. “Excuse me, Ms. Brown,” he said. “I just wanted to let you know that I’m a registered Republican.” Given that my father, Sherrod Brown, is a longtime Ohio politician and a longer-time Democrat, such an introduction usually d...
...n particular, many state governments, struggling to make money in the wake of the recession, began to push new legislation to limit the power of labor unions. This was especially evident in Senate Bill 5, a heavily-publicized Ohio state referendum. Supporters of the bill purported that it would save the state as much as $1.3 billion a year and limit the growth of government. But these “savings” would have come entirely at the expense of Ohio’s pu...
...n the Romney column and Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Nevada are relatively safe for Obama (although Nevada is much less safe than the rest). That leaves Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia as the states that will be in play next Tuesday. Now for the guesswork. Let’s give Florida to Romney – in the seven statewide polls conducted since October 17, Romney has lead Obama (statistically signific...
...ised both national unity and an explicitly progressive agenda, a maneuvering pleases neither moderates nor progressives. Nowhere is the resulting disappointment more palpable than in the great bellwether of American politics: Ohio, which has voted for the winner in the last 12 presidential contests and which has chosen only one loser (Richard Nixon in 1960) since 1948. Acting out of character and voting for a liberal in 2008, Ohio broke sharply t...
...an will all go for the Democrats), and assuming that Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina break Republican, 86 electoral votes will be up for grabs, in seven states: Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. The western states look bad for Romney, with the exception of Nevada, which has an unemployment rate of 12.8 percent, well above the national average, and whose Mormon population may give Romney an edge. Florida is lik...
...gin of error and therefore too close to (officially) call. Final verdict: tricky, but given the way 2000 ended, I’m going to hand this one to Romney. He better be grateful for the gift—it’ll be a tough road to 270 without it. Ohio: Some survey centers put Obama just ahead; others give a (still very slight) edge to Romney, and others go the way of CNN and call it an even split. The general consensus among people who have been following elections l...
...stract the press for a few days from other issues. There’s a good chance Romney’s Libya attacks will continue to lose steam after several days of Hurricane coverage. It can also affect early voting in several key states, like Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Early voting has traditionally benefited the Obama campaign. The hurricane will be a setback. Then there is the jobs report Friday. Again, it’s hard to say how much the numbers will change t...
From Wikimedia Commons This article is part of an ongoing biweekly series called “Highway 270,” which profiles heavily contested states in the 2012 election season. This week, I will examine the current political climate in Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes. Unlike perennial toss-up states Florida and Ohio, Wisconsin hasn’t gone Republican since 1984 (though many of its ultimately Democratic victories were narrow) and is fairly new to bei...
...d naturally each candidate must tailor his argument to the ears of the toss-up state voter—particularly the Virginian. For example, fears that Medicare will be turned into a voucher program are so prevalent in Virginia (as in Ohio, Florida, and most swing states) that Obama would be remiss not to equate a Romney win with potential loss of Medicare. Romney will likely mention, as he did in Virginia yesterday, that his administration would increase...
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