...electoral votes more evenly in what will be a fairly arbitrary race (I can’t imagine that Governor Romney himself would be particularly appreciative of the wealth-of-votes-sharing gesture. I won’t tell him if you don’t.) New Hampshire: I didn’t profile the state for two reasons: 1) it only has four electoral votes, so the odds that the election will come down to New Hampshire are pretty small. 2) It has gone Democratic in the last two elections,...
olina are relatively safe in the Romney column and Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Nevada are relatively safe for Obama (although Nevada is much less safe than the rest). That leaves Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia as the states that will be in play next Tuesday. Now for the guesswork. Let’s give Florida to Romney – in the seven statewide polls conducted since October 17, Romney has lead Ob...
...od. The former speaker’s attempts to flatter the media were no match for a windfall of Super PAC attack ads that informed the public of the hiccups in his tenure as speaker. Gingrich quickly adopted another strategy after New Hampshire. Rejecting the mantra of “hang a lantern on your problem,” Gingrich opted to lead with his strengths in order to downplay his flaws, adopting the guerilla tactics of concealment and surprise as tools for reinventio...
...te’s support, these votes are awarded to the winning candidate. And just as men generally courted women with larger dowries, so candidates tend to court states heavy with electoral votes. Although the New York Times calls New Hampshire a toss-up state, for example, it would be foolish for either candidate to spend months trying to persuade independent New Hampshirites when his reward would be a paltry four electoral votes. New Hampshire may be si...
Although I’d read about how Obama —and to a lesser extent McCain — had inspired and mobilized a truly astounding number of volunteers, when I visited Obama’s local campaign office in New Hampshire a few days before the 2008 election, I couldn’t help but be over-whelmed by their energy and sense of urgency. “You can sleep after election day,” I heard one volunteer say, and this battle cry seemed to capture a truth of the 2008 presidential campaig...
...er being up more than 2 points, with less than two weeks to go. And it was Texas in 1992. Was Texas ever really gonna go blue? So forget Gallup, forget the national polls. You can even forget Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire (all states Obama has leads in). Remember: Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada....
...ess to Romney’s staleness (Romney has been running for president for the past six years). With that said, it seems unlikely that a woman is in the cards, simply because any possible female VP pick (Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, etc.) would not be thought of primarily as an individual running with Romney, but instead as an individual to be compared with the inarguably polarizing Palin. Romney will w...
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